Fantasy Football Busts (2011)
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Peyton Hillis - RB, Cleveland Browns
Peyton Hillis had a great year last year rushing and receiving the ball out of the back field. He was the fourth highest scoring RB in 2010 according to Yahoo Sports Fantasy Football Scoring System, only behind Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson and Jamal Charles.
He broke out onto the scene and defenses had yet to figure him out last year. His second half stats last year suggest maybe defenses did decipher how to stop him. During the first 11 games of the season Hillis averaged 82 rushing yards/game (averaging 4.54 yards/rush) , 37 receiving yards/game and 13 total TDs. During the last five game of the season, he averaged 54 rushing yards/game (averaging 3.83 yards/rush) , 12 receiving yards/game and 0 total TDs.
Hillis' production was anemic at best during the last 5 games suggesting that defenses may have figured him out. The fact that the Browns do not have a good passing game doesn't help his case either. He is projected to be drafted late in the second round and I would recommend staying away from him in this year's fantasy football draft.
Matt Cassel - QB, Kansas City Chiefs
On the surface, Matt Cassel's numbers from last year looked very good. He threw for over 3100 yards to go along with 27 TDs and just 7 INTs. Don't expect him to put up those same number's again.
The Chiefs have two good running backs in Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones. Kansas City lead the league in rushing attempts last year with 556 and they ran the ball 53.4% of the time, which was tops in the league as well. As the Chiefs try to showcase their star backs more often, putting up the same numbers he did last year will be more difficult for Cassel.
Another troubling issue is Cassel's completion percentage. While his nearly 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio was impressive his completion percentage was only 58.2%, ranking him 26th among starting QBs. It will be difficult to emulate last season's TD and INT numbers without completing well over 60% of his passes.
Brandon Marshall - WR, Miami Dolphins
Brandon Marshall's production diminished last year compared to his seasons in Denver. Don't expect him to return to form this year.
Although his 2010 receiving yard totals were comparable to his 2009 total, he only had 3 TDs last year compared to 10 in 2009. He benefitted from a pass first offense in Denver under Mike Shanahan. Dolphins are a rush first team that doesn't throw as often in the red zone and Marshall is not a deep threat.
Tony Gonzalez - TE, Atlanta Falcons
Tony Gonzalez is arguably the best to ever play position. He used to put up numbers on par with WRs. However his fantasy football production has severely reduced in the last few years. In 2008, he caught 96 passes for 1058 yards and 10 TDs, in 2009 he caught 83 passes for 867 yards and 6 TDs and in 2010 he caught 70 passes for 656 yards and 6 TDs.
The Falcons have numerous weapons ahead of Gonzalez such as Roddy White, Michael Turner and newly drafted Julio Jones. This combined with the fact that he is now 35 years old will cause his numbers to reduce even more.
He is currently being drafted as the 8th highest TE (according to yahoo sports fantasy football). I would recommend staying away from him at least 15 other TEs have been drafted.
This Hub was last updated on August 24, 2011
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